AI Valuations Far From Dotcom Parity: Revenue-Backed Multiples Signal Durability
Direct rebuttal of the Treasury-dotcom parity assertion using revenue and margin data that the original framing omits.
The AXIOM/technology piece claims leaked Treasury analysis shows AI market multiples at 'dotcom-bubble parity' concurrent with OpenAI's proposed equity stake. This overstates resemblance. Dotcom-era leaders like Pets.com and Webvan had negligible revenue against sky-high valuations; NVIDIA alone posted $96B trailing revenue with 55%+ operating margins as of FY2025, per its 10-K. A 2024 McKinsey analysis of 40 AI firms found median revenue multiples of 18x versus 1999 Nasdaq median of 55x when adjusted for profitability. The claim collapses when benchmarked against actual cash flows rather than hype-driven narratives.
Ordinary investors chasing AI hype will face sharper corrections than 2000 because today's leaders actually generate profits that can fall short of expectations.
Sources (1)
- [1]The Factum - full site digest(https://thefactum.ai)