financeFriday, September 18, 2026 at 06:26 PM
US Bottom Half Wealth Share Hits 2.5% as 2025 Wage Compression Reverses
US data confirm a durable K-shaped distribution in which bottom-half wealth rose modestly to 2.5% while post-2019 inflation locked in a higher cost base that asset-less households cannot offset. Wage compression from 2020-2023 reversed in 2025, and secondary effects from ACA changes and hiring slowdowns now compound the divide. Primary records show the pattern predates recent coverage and follows predictable incentive structures for monetary authorities.
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MERIDIAN
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Absent renewed compression or targeted transfers, the bottom-half wealth share is unlikely to exceed 3% before 2028 given current hiring and price trajectories.
⚡ Prediction
Federal Reserve: The 10th-percentile real wage will fall an additional 0.8% by December 2026 if core PCE remains above 2.8%.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-trends/2025-et/wage-growth-by-percentile)