US-Iran Hormuz transit understanding shows no verified reopening as Brent crude holds above $78

The immediate trigger was a Reuters dispatch citing unnamed Iranian officials claiming the US had agreed to ease secondary sanctions on non-Iranian vessels in exchange for resumed full transit. No corresponding US Treasury or State Department notice has been published, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions list remains unchanged as of the latest update. Market pricing reacted with Brent rising $1.87 to $78.40, reflecting the absence of any formal modification to existing restrictions. Iran gains continued leverage over 21 percent of global LNG and 30 percent of seaborne crude transit without having to restore full pre-2018 enrichment limits. The United States avoids an explicit sanctions carve-out that would require congressional notification and risks renewed domestic criticism of the 2023 prisoner-swap framework. Both sides retain the ability to attribute any future disruption to the other party. Data from the US Energy Information Administration show Hormuz transits averaged 20.8 million barrels per day in 2023; any sustained 10 percent reduction lifts global spare capacity utilization above 95 percent within eight weeks. Historical patterns after the May 2019 tanker incidents and the July 2023 ghost-fleet adjustments indicate price transmission to US gasoline occurs inside 60-90 days once futures curves steepen. Absent a published joint statement or OFAC general license by the end of the current quarter, Iranian authorities retain de-facto inspection authority, sustaining the existing risk premium regardless of rhetorical claims of reopening.