Goldman Sachs Warns EU TTF Prices May Exceed 100 Euros per MWh by December 2026 if Strait of Hormuz LNG Flows Stay Constrained
Goldman Sachs revised its European gas price outlook upward under a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario. EU storage shortfalls and competition with Asia for LNG cargoes create the conditions for TTF to test 100 euros per MWh by late 2026. The analysis rests on observed Qatari export reductions and partial US corridor improvements rather than stated policy outcomes.
Next steps hinge on whether Qatari loadings resume or further US measures widen the corridor effect. Storage data releases in September will show if injections close the gap or widen the deficit against seasonal norms.
Goldman Sachs: December 2026 TTF settles above 90 euros per MWh if Qatari LNG loadings through Hormuz remain below 70 percent of 2024 levels through Q4 2025.
Sources (2)
- [1]Goldman Sachs Commodities Research Note(https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/commodities-research-august-2025.html)
- [2]EU Gas Storage Data - Aggregated System Operator(https://agsi.gie.eu/)