Iranian state media reported an end to message exchanges with the United States concerning Israel, prompting immediate oil futures gains. Primary records from the IAEA Board of Governors (GOV/2024/41) document ongoing safeguards implementation disputes that predate the current episode, while UN Security Council Resolution 2231 continues to frame nuclear-related restrictions without direct bilateral mechanisms. US Treasury statements emphasize sanctions enforcement separate from any messaging channel, whereas Iranian Foreign Ministry notes stress third-party intermediaries such as Oman. Historical patterns from 2019 tanker incidents show similar price spikes preceding OPEC+ production adjustments rather than immediate supply shortfalls. Coverage limited to spot price movements overlooks how central bank inflation forecasts incorporate energy volatility bands derived from these diplomatic frictions.