Terrestrial carbon sink rebounds to 3.1 GtC in 2025 after 2023-24 El Niño losses
The land carbon sink rebounded in 2025 due to improved growing conditions after El Niño-driven losses, but remains highly sensitive to future climate variability. Data from multiple inversion systems and vegetation models highlight both the temporary nature of the recovery and the need for targeted conservation in drought-prone regions. This offers cautious optimism for policy while stressing the requirement for resilient ecosystem strategies.
The analysis integrates the Global Carbon Project 2025 budget with new flux-tower data from the FLUXNET-CH4 network and ESA CCI biomass maps, revealing that prior New Scientist coverage understated interannual variability by relying on a single inversion product. Strengthening evidence requires sustained funding for tropical flux sites and integration of solar-induced fluorescence observations to reduce posterior uncertainty below 0.5 GtC yr-1.
Global Carbon Project: Land sink will fall below 1.8 GtC in 2026 if Niño 3.4 index exceeds +1.5 for six consecutive months.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.icos-cp.eu/science-and-impact/global-carbon-budget)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/1/2025/)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02015-4)