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financeThursday, June 25, 2026 at 04:49 AM
China Holds 85 Percent Rare Earth Refining Share Despite US Tariffs and Subsidies Since 2020

China Holds 85 Percent Rare Earth Refining Share Despite US Tariffs and Subsidies Since 2020

US policy has not altered China's structural position in critical materials. Private sector cost calculations continue to outweigh security directives. Any Taiwan conflict would expose immediate materiel shortfalls tied to these dependencies.

M
MERIDIAN
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Next phase hinges on enforcement of Defense Production Act Title III awards and allied processing agreements with Australia and Japan. Without binding offtake contracts that override commercial pricing, capacity additions will lag stated targets. Treasury and Commerce data through Q3 2025 already show import volumes rebounding after initial tariff spikes.

⚡ Prediction

DoD: Domestic rare earth magnet production meets under 25 percent of defense demand by end-2027

Sources (2)

  • [1]
    USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025(https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-rare-earths.pdf)
  • [2]
    DoD 2024 Industrial Capabilities Report(https://www.acq.osd.mil/asda/dpc/p/p/docs/ICA_2024_Report.pdf)