Preprint Links Earth's Rotation Rate to ENSO Onset via Pacific Subtropical Highs
The preprint introduces a rotation-to-ridge-to-wind pathway that paces ENSO phase but not amplitude. It decouples a sub-annual LOD band from ENSO feedback and identifies synchrony of hemispheric ridges as the source of event diversity. Validation against independent datasets and dynamical models remains essential before operational use.
The framework traces a chain from 0.5-1 year LOD anomalies that peak in August, December, and May, shifting mass poleward and eastward until the ridges overlie the subtropical highs. These ridges then force dateline zonal winds that initiate and sustain equatorial SST anomalies, with Northern Hemisphere spring triggering and Southern Hemisphere spring sustaining events. Cross-correlation with NINO3 remains below 0.05 in this band, confirming the signal is independent of ENSO feedback.
Partial correlation analysis indicates the direct rotation-to-ocean path disappears once EPSH strength is controlled, positioning the ridges as the mechanistic conduit. The resulting Mirror-SIGMA circulation at event maturity disrupts the upstream chain and terminates the cycle. Because the index is complete by the July before the event year, it offers phase prediction far earlier than current statistical or dynamical models.
As a single-author preprint without independent validation or coupled-model tests, the claim rests on observational correlations whose causality requires confirmation through targeted experiments. Replication across reanalysis products and forward prediction of the next two ENSO cycles would substantially strengthen the evidence.
Wang et al.: The EPSH-based index will correctly forecast ENSO phase for the 2027 boreal spring onset with at least 75% accuracy when tested against observed NINO3.4 anomalies.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09970)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0853.1)