Treasury data on individual income tax refunds show average payments near $3,500 through April 2025, yet BEA personal income and outlays tables indicate the associated spending impulse is already decelerating in lower quintiles. Primary BEA tables for April and May 2025 record a savings rate at 3.8 percent, the lowest since 2022, while EIA weekly gasoline price series document sustained levels above $4.00. The Financial Times reference to an Iran-linked price shock aligns with contemporaneous State Department statements on sanctions enforcement, but omits the concurrent extension of 2017 TCJA provisions that altered withholding schedules. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q1 2025 shows rising credit-card delinquency rates concentrated in sub-$50k income cohorts. Company transcripts from Kraft Heinz and Target earnings calls cite these patterns without attributing them to any single policy lever. Official IRS SOI bulletin data on refund timing confirm the front-loaded distribution that supported Q1 retail sales, now absent from Q2 and Q3 baselines. Multiple policy angles—tax-code mechanics, energy sanctions, and automatic-stabilizer effects—therefore intersect on household cash flow within the next two quarters.