Private Credit Supplies $800 Billion for Data Center Capex Through 2028, Shifting AI Infrastructure Risk Toward Sovereign Backstop

The financing shift follows declining coverage ratios on hyperscaler bonds, from five times oversubscribed in February to under two times in July. Meta's Hyperion joint venture in Louisiana illustrates the structure: Blue Owl funds hold 80 percent equity, PIMCO anchored $27.3 billion in bonds, and Meta retains a four-year lease plus $41.5 billion in residual value guarantees recorded in its September 10-Q. These off-balance-sheet vehicles mirror pre-2008 mortgage conduits, moving marginal debt from public markets into private vehicles with short economic lives. Washington has classified compute capacity as strategic infrastructure in recent executive orders and CHIPS Act implementation, creating precedent for intervention if facilities strand. Primary records show the administration treating AI hardware supply chains as national security assets rather than pure commercial markets. The pattern indicates state absorption of tail risk once private lenders face correlated defaults from tenant exits. Next moves center on whether federal credit facilities or direct equity stakes appear in the 2026 budget cycle to prevent capacity idling.