Oil Surges Past $100 Amid US-Iran Escalation, Fueling Europe's Gas Price Risks

Brent crude futures breached $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2026, driven by intensified US-Iran strikes in the Gulf, including US destruction of five Iranian oil tankers and Iranian missile attacks on a US base in Jordan and shipping. Mainstream reports from Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CNN, and The Guardian confirm the escalation, with analysts noting fading hopes for de-escalation and potential for sustained supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecasts, highlighting upside risks above $120 if Gulf output stays significantly below pre-war levels. This oil spike coincides with rising European natural gas prices, which hit their highest levels since early 2023 amid fears of LNG shipment disruptions—Hormuz previously carried about 20% of global LNG trade. Euronews and Reuters report European TTF gas prices approaching €79/MWh, low storage levels (around 66% full, the lowest in 15 years), and warnings from the IEA about preparing reserves. Connections to daily life include potential electricity bill increases of up to €120 annually in gas-dependent markets like Italy, Ireland, and the UK, per IEEFA analysis, alongside broader inflation pressures on households and industry within the next 12 months as winter demand looms.