
SpaceX Closes $75 Billion IPO at $135 Per Share for $1.77 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX executed the largest IPO in history at a $1.77 trillion valuation despite ongoing losses. Retail and foreign demand exceeded allocations while analysts flagged a disconnect from fundamentals. Index inclusion and post-listing flows will test whether the price is sustained.
The filing confirmed a structure that bypassed conventional price ranges and placed SpaceX ahead of Saudi Aramco's prior $29.4 billion record. Employee options push the fully diluted value near $1.8 trillion, inserting the company among the world's ten largest listed entities and above Tesla. Starlink connectivity, Falcon and Starship launch services, and the xAI unit form the three revenue pillars, yet the firm posted a $4.9 billion net loss for 2025. Retail orders surpassed $100 billion according to Bloomberg data, exceeding the 20 percent allocation reserved for that cohort. Passive index inflows are expected once SPCX enters the Nasdaq-100, while foreign demand from sovereign and institutional channels supplied additional pressure not quantified in initial coverage. Rule changes accelerating benchmark inclusion shorten the typical lock-up period for new entrants. Morningstar's $63 fair-value estimate and James Chanos's characterization of the offering as driven by narrative rather than earnings highlight the gap between offered price and modeled cash flows. Starlink's addressable market is concrete, yet the valuation multiple rests on unproven AI and orbital manufacturing projections. The two-sided ledger shows Musk retaining control through voting structures while exposing outside holders to dilution risk if execution slips. Next steps center on first-day trading performance, with Polymarket assigning 84 percent probability of closing above the offer price and 46 percent odds of a 20 percent gain. Sustained foreign inflows will determine whether the valuation holds or reverts once initial retail enthusiasm is absorbed.
Polymarket: SPCX closes above $162 within five trading days after debut.
Sources (2)
- [1]SEC Free Writing Prospectus FWP(https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/spacex/2026)
- [2]Bloomberg IPO Order Data(https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/spacex-ipo-demand)