Kerr Spin and Relativistic Geodesics Raise EMRI Rates 2.5-Fold Each
Inclination diffusion in Kerr spacetime converts some EMRIs to plunges and others vice versa, yielding a net 2.5-fold rate increase from spin and another 2.5-fold from relativistic geodesics. The resulting prograde bias offers a potential observational signature for LISA. Evidence rests on Monte Carlo sampling of diffusion along Kerr geodesics; full waveform integration and cluster population synthesis remain to be performed.
The distribution of detectable EMRIs therefore carries an imprint of central black-hole spin that future LISA catalogs can exploit. Next steps include coupling the diffusion maps to full post-Newtonian waveforms and population-synthesis models that incorporate nuclear-cluster density profiles. Such integration will tighten constraints on both EMRI formation channels and the spin distribution of massive black holes.
LISA Science Team: First 50 confirmed EMRIs will show statistically significant prograde inclination excess above 60 percent within two years of science operations starting 2035.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18964)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.07163)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.11390)