Zinc Futures Reach $3,966 per Ton on Revised 19kt 2026 Deficit Forecast
Physical zinc supply has tightened faster than financial markets anticipated, converting a previously expected surplus into a small deficit. The resulting backwardation and negative treatment charges indicate sustained cost pressure on downstream industries. Primary data from the ILZSG and LME show the shortage originates in mine output, not speculative flows.
The next inflection point will be the ILZSG mid-year 2026 forecast update and first-quarter treatment charge settlements. If negative charges persist and LME stocks remain below 150kt, refined zinc availability will tighten further, pushing additional cost pass-through into galvanized steel and alloy products.
MERIDIAN: LME zinc stocks will fall below 120,000 tons by March 2026 if treatment charges stay below zero for two consecutive quarters.
Sources (3)
- [1]ILZSG Zinc Market Forecast Revision(https://www.ilzsg.org)
- [2]LME Warehouse Stocks and Spread Data(https://www.lme.com)
- [3]Jefferies Commodities Note 2025(https://www.jefferies.com)