IMF Projects Global Public Debt at 100% GDP by 2029 as Unfunded Liabilities Reach 300% GDP

US Treasury fiscal 2025 data record federal debt held by the public at 99% of GDP alongside $88.4 trillion in 75-year social insurance shortfalls. These figures capture the gap between projected outflows and dedicated revenues under current rules. Central bank balance sheet expansion has lowered near-term borrowing costs yet left primary deficits intact, allowing governments to substitute new issuance for structural adjustment.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index sits 16% below its 2021 peak, reflecting duration losses once policy rates normalized. Investors have shifted toward credit and private debt to avoid sovereign duration risk. This reallocation reveals the incentive mismatch: politicians gain from announcing benefits today while future taxpayers absorb the compounding interest burden.

Quantitative easing replaces long-term bonds with interest-bearing reserves but does not alter the stock of real claims on future output. When spending commitments exceed revenue capacity, solvency depends on either higher growth, higher taxes, or explicit restructuring. No major economy has yet chosen the latter two at scale.

Absent primary surplus targets or entitlement reform, debt service will continue crowding out discretionary outlays within five years in the largest issuers.