NBER Attributes 33-52% of U.S. Fertility Drop to iPhone Rollout

The diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44 since 2007 (NBER w35310). Entropy-balanced Poisson models applied to AT&T coverage variation from 2007-2011 show birth reductions of 4.5-8.0% at ages 15-19 and 3.2-6.6% at ages 20-24, with placebo tests on Verizon and Sprint footprints returning null results (NBER w35310). National time-use surveys indicate reduced in-person interactions and higher pornography consumption as mechanisms lowering sexual frequency (NBER w35310). CDC vital statistics reports confirm the 22% GFR decline persisted after controlling for economic variables, aligning with cohort-specific suppression of births under age 30 (CDC/NCHS NVSR Vol. 69 No. 3). BLS American Time Use Survey data from 2007-2019 document parallel drops in social engagement coinciding with smartphone penetration rates above 80% (BLS ATUS 2003-2022).