US Oil Restrictions Cut Venezuelan and Mexican Shipments to Cuba

The policy change followed the US designation of Venezuela as a sanctions target and subsequent diplomatic outreach to Mexico in late 2024. Cuban foreign ministry records show fuel imports fell from 1.2 million barrels per month in 2023 to under 50,000 barrels in the first half of 2025. This contraction directly reduced electricity generation capacity by an estimated 35 percent according to state utility data.

Cuba's stated position, conveyed through its Washington mission, frames the measures as collective punishment without reference to its own oil-for-services agreements with Caracas. US records from the Treasury Department list the actions as enforcement of existing statutes targeting third-country support for sanctioned entities. Both sides record no active bilateral agenda since early 2025.

Regional effects include Mexico's reported compliance with US requests on export licensing and the absence of alternative suppliers from China or Russia at scale. Cuban central bank data indicate foreign reserves declined 18 percent year-over-year through June 2025, coinciding with higher spot purchases on open markets.

Next steps hinge on whether Mexico renews any export waivers after September 2025 and whether Cuba secures documented alternative contracts before the next dry-season demand spike.