U.S. Retirees Project 99% Probability of Exhausting Savings Before Death
The reported case illustrates aggregate longevity risk facing U.S. households without children. Primary data from SSA tables and GAO analysis show rising survival probabilities increase fiscal exposure through extended Social Security and Medicare claims. Institutional structures have not adjusted decumulation defaults or annuity mandates to match updated mortality distributions.
The couple's self-reported calculation aligns with Social Security Administration period life tables showing life expectancy at age 65 now exceeds 18.5 years for men and 21 years for women, with cohort projections extending further. Their decision to maintain current spending rather than accelerate drawdown reflects standard utility maximization under longevity risk, where the marginal cost of outliving assets exceeds the benefit of earlier consumption. No children removes bequest motives that otherwise alter optimal decumulation paths in lifecycle models.
SSA: Cohort life expectancy at 65 will reach 20.5 years by 2035, triggering measurable increase in OASI trust fund depletion rate.
Sources (2)
- [1]Social Security Administration Actuarial Life Tables 2023(https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)
- [2]Government Accountability Office Retirement Security Report 2022(https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105288)