US and Russia Force Non-Binding Guidelines on LAWS at CCW Geneva Session

The 128 CCW states parties failed to advance a non-binding text toward treaty negotiations after Washington and Moscow proposed removals of language on lethality thresholds and mandatory human judgment loops. Diplomatic cables show at least six capitals received direct US demarches urging support for voluntary guidelines over new law, consistent with DoD Directive 3000.09 language that treats existing IHL as sufficient. Procurement records reveal parallel US investment: FY2025 Replicator initiative contracts for attritable autonomous systems exceeded $500 million without added oversight clauses.

Russian positions align with documented field use of Lancet and Shahed variants in Ukraine, where target selection autonomy has expanded since 2023 without public rules of engagement. CCW session transcripts show Moscow deleted references to predictability testing, matching its pattern of rejecting verification mechanisms in prior arms control forums. Brazil, Ireland and African Group states retained support for explicit control requirements, exposing the split between export-control haves and potential victims.

The outcome preserves flexibility for ongoing AI-enabled targeting programs while deferring any new prohibition. Next formal session is scheduled for November 2026; absent new text, the issue shifts to UNGA First Committee where majority votes cannot bind objectors.