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scienceFriday, August 28, 2026 at 03:43 PM
Extended PBH mass function boosts high-z halo formation and predicts few LISA IMBH events per year to z~50

Extended PBH mass function boosts high-z halo formation and predicts few LISA IMBH events per year to z~50

Preprint models an extended PBH mass function from early-Universe thermal features and finds enhanced small-scale structure plus detectable high-redshift IMBH mergers for LISA. Evidence rests on analytic power-spectrum calculations propagated to halo and merger-rate statistics. Key limitation is lack of full N-body validation; stronger tests require hydrodynamical simulations and actual LISA observations.

The study computes Poisson fluctuations from the extended PBH mass function and propagates them through the halo mass function to the cosmic star-formation rate density and Thomson optical depth. Results indicate a mild increase in high-redshift star formation that remains within current reionization bounds while populating the stellar-mass binary regime already accessible to LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA. For LISA the signal is dominated by 10^3-10^4 solar-mass binaries whose high-redshift detections would distinguish primordial from astrophysical seeds. This connects directly to the long-standing puzzle of supermassive black hole formation by z~7, where PBH seeds could bypass standard Pop-III pathways. Earlier analytic work on monochromatic PBH populations underestimated the high-mass tail contribution to intermediate-mass mergers; the extended function naturally supplies that tail without violating microlensing or dynamical constraints. Future LISA data releases will test the prediction that cumulative rates above z=20 exceed one event per year if PBHs comprise even a few percent of dark matter.

⚡ Prediction

LISA Collaboration: Cumulative detection of at least three IMBH mergers with component masses 10^3-10^4 M_sun at z>20 within the first 18 months of science operations would exceed astrophysical-only forecasts and support non-negligible PBH dark-matter fraction.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.26247)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.15595)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.02821)