US Nonfarm Payrolls Add 29,000 Jobs in September With July Revised Negative
September payrolls missed estimates after substantial downward revisions to prior months, revealing weaker underlying job growth than initially reported. The divergence between establishment and household surveys, combined with slower wage gains, shifts the documented basis for monetary policy calibration. Primary BLS figures now place combined July-August employment 60,000 lower than previously stated.
Market pricing shifted toward earlier easing as Treasury yields fell. Subsequent employment releases through year-end will determine whether the central bank adjusts its terminal rate projection or maintains the current stance based on incoming primary data.
MERIDIAN: The Federal Open Market Committee will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its November meeting if the October unemployment rate exceeds 4.3 percent.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm)