Goldman Sachs Revises GLP-1 Market Outlook Upward, Highlighting Policy-Driven Expansion in Oral Therapies and Medicare Channels

Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 2030 global anti-obesity medication total addressable market projection to $114 billion, citing accelerated oral GLP-1 uptake, non-U.S. demand growth, and adjusted U.S. pricing assumptions. Primary data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on the GLP-1 Most Favored Nation pricing framework, effective July 2025, indicate a modeled 17 million patient cohort generating an estimated $2.6 billion in 2026 channel sales, predominantly injectables. This intersects with Novo Nordisk's reported new-to-brand prescription share for its oral Wegovy formulation reaching 40-50 percent in initial launch quarters, per company filings with the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Eli Lilly's concurrent Foundayo development trajectory shows parallel oral share gains in U.S. and select OUS markets. Coverage misses include the absence of longitudinal efficacy data from Phase 4 post-marketing studies required under FDA accelerated approval pathways and potential biosimilar entry timelines post-2030 patent cliffs documented in USPTO records. Outside the U.S., Chinese National Medical Products Administration approvals for domestic GLP-1 analogs introduce competitive pricing pressure not fully captured in prior TAM models. Employer-sponsored insurance cost trajectories, referenced in U.S. Chamber of Commerce surveys, suggest downstream effects on labor market participation rates in sectors with high obesity prevalence. Multiple stakeholder documents, including WHO obesity strategy papers and EU EMA assessment reports, frame these shifts as reallocations within constrained public budgets rather than net new spending.