financeThursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:31 PM
Diesel Crack Spreads Near $100/bbl as Hormuz Flows Fall to 4 mb/d and Russian Refining Capacity Contracts
Disruptions at three of four major refining regions have redirected demand toward US inventories and lifted diesel cracks to record seasonal levels. Primary data from tanker tracking and national export bans confirm the supply contraction. No strategic stock release has offset the shortfall.
M
MERIDIAN
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If Hormuz crossings remain below 15 daily through September, observed global diesel stocks will test 2018 lows and sustain cracks above $80. Additional Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure or an extended Chinese export pause would widen the gap further.
⚡ Prediction
EIA: US distillate inventories will fall below 110 million barrels by 30 September 2026 if Hormuz crossings stay under 12 per day.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/commodities-outlook.html)