Primary data from Federal Reserve flows and Treasury reports show the Buffett Indicator exceeding 200 percent of GDP, a level last approached before the 2000 and 2008 corrections, yet official statements from the Federal Open Market Committee emphasize structural productivity gains from artificial intelligence as offsetting factors. Berkshire Hathaway's 2023 shareholder letter, signed by Warren Buffett, explicitly cautions against extrapolating past multiples without regard to interest-rate regimes, a point mainstream coverage of the current 230 percent reading underplays by focusing on domestic sentiment rather than cross-border capital movements. IMF World Economic Outlook chapters on commodity shocks document how Middle East supply disruptions and U.S.-China technology export controls jointly elevate energy and semiconductor costs, creating a valuation wedge not captured in single-country equity aggregates. One perspective, drawn from Treasury International Capital data, holds that sustained foreign inflows into U.S. equities could defer mean reversion despite elevated ratios; an alternative reading from the same primary series suggests these inflows remain sensitive to fiscal trajectory signals and could reverse if deficit-reduction measures tighten. Coverage that lists eight domestic warning signs therefore omits the interaction between monetary policy normalization and strategic competition over critical minerals, an interaction visible in Department of Commerce export-license statistics. The resulting picture is not a binary top signal but a distribution of outcomes conditional on whether fiscal authorities accommodate or constrain the AI capital-expenditure cycle.