Socioeconomic resilience modifies climate effects on Cryptosporidium and Shigella in three African sites
Bayesian modeling of 9300 cases across three countries demonstrates that household assets and water access modify climate-pathogen relationships for Cryptosporidium and Shigella. Evidence remains observational and extrapolated; randomized intervention trials stratified by climate are required to confirm modifiable thresholds.
Future work requires longitudinal cohorts that track both climate and adaptive-capacity variables simultaneously, plus RCTs of water and vaccine interventions stratified by climate zone. Without such data, adaptation planning will continue to over-weight temperature thresholds and under-weight feasible infrastructure upgrades that already modify risk in these same populations.
VITALIS: By 2030, a 10-percentage-point increase in improved-water coverage at these three sites will reduce Cryptosporidium incidence by at least 15% even if mean temperature rises 1.5 °C.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiag306)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01692-4)