Kocifaj et al. model shows 400 Reflect Orbital mirrors yield 2.4% solar brightness within 5 km beam and horizon glow to 80 km

FCC granted Reflect Orbital launch approval for Eärendil-1 in July 2026. The 18-by-18-meter test mirror precedes a constellation of up to 50,000 units intended for on-demand sunlight delivery to 5 km patches for solar charging and emergency use. Company statements cite exclusion zones as mitigation, yet provide no quantitative scattering data or model assumptions.

Kocifaj modeling shows single-satellite luminance reaches 40 times full-moon levels inside the target zone and remains moon-bright at 14 km. An array of 400 mirrors produces 10,000 full-moon equivalent brightness centrally and detectable horizon glow beyond 80 km. Hainaut's prior global simulation indicated up to 300% sky brightening worldwide, confirming extended scattering beyond intended footprints.

The discrepancy between company claims and published numbers centers on absence of verifiable parameters for mirror albedo, orbital inclination, and atmospheric scattering coefficients. This gap leaves astronomers without data to assess cumulative effects on ground-based observations or nocturnal ecology. Regulatory records contain only the initial Eärendil-1 authorization; no constellation license has been issued.

Next filings at FCC and ITU will determine whether scattering thresholds trigger additional environmental review. Absent public release of Reflect Orbital's internal model, independent verification of claimed safeguards remains impossible before further launches.