Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz After Third US Strike in Seven Days

US Central Command conducted precision strikes on Iranian missile facilities and Revolutionary Guard naval bases between 6 and 12 July. Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on Saudi, Emirati, and Bahraini targets while issuing a formal notice that Hormuz traffic would cease until further notice. Shipping data from the US Energy Information Administration show 21 million barrels per day moved through the strait in 2025, with 80 percent destined for Asian markets.

The move alters the risk premium embedded in Brent and WTI contracts. Historical precedent from the 1980s Tanker War shows that sustained closure raises delivered crude costs by $8-12 per barrel within two weeks through longer routing around the Cape. Arab Gulf producers lose leverage over Asian buyers once alternative supply routes prove insufficient, while the United States gains temporary pressure on Iranian export revenue without committing ground forces.

Documented Iranian statements tie the closure to deterrence of further US action, while US Defense Department releases frame the strikes as responses to proxy attacks on US positions in Iraq and Syria. Both sides therefore treat energy infrastructure as the principal domain of escalation rather than direct territorial contest.

Forward indicators include VLCC charter rates out of Ras Tanura and daily transits reported by the Joint Maritime Information Center. Sustained closure beyond 96 hours would force coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves by OECD members and accelerate Chinese purchases from Russian and Venezuelan fields.