WOH G64's dust ejection rate doubled since 2016, contradicting standard red supergiant mass-loss tracks
WOH G64 demonstrates that red supergiant mass loss can accelerate dramatically in the final years before core collapse, matching recent supernova progenitor observations. The finding challenges steady-wind assumptions in stellar evolution models and suggests binary or pulsational triggers operate on short timescales. Confirmation requires repeated infrared monitoring of the Magellanic Clouds over the next five years.
Next-generation infrared surveys such as Roman and the Extremely Large Telescope's MICADO will monitor similar LMC and SMC supergiants for comparable infrared brightening episodes. Detection of even one additional event within five years would raise the inferred fraction of red supergiants that undergo late-stage outbursts from the current <10 % to >30 %, forcing revision of supernova progenitor channels.
van Loon: WOH G64 will show another factor-of-1.5 rise in 10-micron flux within 36 months if the current instability persists.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28428)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.10119)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acf4f7)