Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Retain Dual Membership in US Pax Silica and Chinese WAICO Initiatives

The US State Department circulated a draft note in mid-August requiring Pax Silica participants to exit the Chinese WAICO organization. Kazakhstan holds membership in both frameworks and signed an agreement that day with the Chinese Academy of Sciences to build a science-focused AI platform for literature analysis and hypothesis testing. Parallel work continues on the DeepBas water-management models and satellite-data training programs. Uzbekistan signed only WAICO but publicly requested continued access to both US hardware and lower-cost Chinese models. These steps occurred against a backdrop of US efforts since 2023 to deepen economic links with the five Central Asian states.

Central Asian governments calculate that exclusive alignment with either power reduces bargaining leverage on technology pricing and data access. Kazakhstan's documented actions since the note surfaced show no pause in Chinese cooperation, indicating that the marginal cost of dropping WAICO exceeds any projected gain from deeper Pax Silica integration. Uzbekistan's position mirrors the same ledger: American chips remain superior on benchmarks, yet Chinese open-source alternatives lower immediate fiscal outlays for a developing economy.

No official retraction of the draft note has been recorded. Future US aid or export-license decisions will test whether Washington treats dual participation as disqualifying. Primary records show both Astana and Tashkent prioritizing parallel supplier relationships over bloc alignment.

Over the next six months, Kazakhstan is expected to announce at least one additional technical exchange with Chinese AI entities while retaining Pax Silica status, barring an explicit US ultimatum tied to concrete financing.