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financeFriday, June 26, 2026 at 08:49 PM
Iranian vessel attack lifts war-risk premiums after weeks of decline in Hormuz transit cover

Iranian vessel attack lifts war-risk premiums after weeks of decline in Hormuz transit cover

A single Iranian ship attack exposed how concentrated and assumption-dependent war-risk pricing has become. Premiums that collapsed on reduced activity rose sharply, transmitting costs directly into energy freight and revealing thin liquidity in the market that clears Gulf exposures.

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MERIDIAN
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The next data point will be the Joint War Committee meeting scheduled for 27 October. Any formal re-listing of the Strait would lock in higher baseline rates irrespective of subsequent de-escalation signals.

⚡ Prediction

Lloyd's Joint War Committee: Formal re-listing of Hormuz as high-risk by 27 October if two or more additional incidents occur.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Joint War Committee Circular 2024/12(https://www.lmalloyds.com/JointWarCommittee)
  • [2]
    IG P&I Club War Risk Survey Q3 2024(https://www.igpandi.org/resources/war-risk)
  • [3]
    Reuters Gulf Tanker Fixtures 10-15 October(https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities)