India Locks in Record 2.35 Million bpd Russian Crude Imports for June 2026

India’s June intake exceeds the prior monthly peak of 2.2 million bpd set in May 2023. The surge follows the expiration of the US waiver on Russian crude already loaded and coincides with reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Russian barrels now constitute half of Indian imports, displacing traditional Middle East suppliers whose output has fallen. Refinery margins remain supported by sustained discounts of $3-5 per barrel versus Dated Brent.

The shift reveals a durable re-routing of trade flows rather than a temporary arbitrage. Russia secures reliable offtake that offsets lost European volumes, while India obtains discounted feedstock that lowers its import bill by an estimated $10-12 billion annually. Both sides accept the risk of secondary-sanction exposure in exchange for these cash-flow certainties. Parallel purchases from Nigeria, Angola, Brazil and Venezuela further diversify Indian supply away from Gulf chokepoints.

Primary records show no renewed US waiver has been issued, yet Kpler analysts project Indian Russian imports will stay above 2 million bpd through the third quarter. The absence of enforcement actions against Indian refiners indicates Washington prioritizes containing Hormuz disruption over strict sanctions compliance. Moscow, for its part, has redirected additional Urals and ESPO grades eastward via expanded fleet arrangements.

The pattern points to a structural reordering of Eurasian energy corridors that will persist beyond any single waiver decision. Future volumes hinge on the duration of Hormuz constraints and the depth of Russian price concessions rather than diplomatic statements.