Micron scales HBM output under US export controls while China accounts for 20-25% of revenue
Micron's Idaho origins and current HBM expansion illustrate how US industrial policy converts a memory supplier into a controlled chokepoint for AI hardware. Primary filings show revenue reallocation away from China alongside new domestic capacity commitments. Concentration among three HBM producers persists regardless of bilateral restrictions.
Next phase centers on 2025 HBM capacity additions. If Commerce expands controls to HBM4, Micron's China exposure drops below 15% while US government offtake agreements accelerate. Absent new restrictions, Micron's HBM revenue share is projected to reach 18-22% of total sales by fiscal 2026 based on current NVIDIA and AMD design wins.
US Commerce Department: Additional HBM licensing requirements will cut Micron China revenue share below 15% by Q2 FY2026
Sources (2)
- [1]Micron Technology Form 10-K FY2024(https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312524000042/mu-20240829.htm)
- [2]CHIPS and Science Act of 2022(https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346/text)