Gulf Crude Exports Recover to 15-16 Million Barrels Per Day via Dark Tanker Transits
Gulf producers adapted to chokepoint constraints through dark tanker operations, restoring export levels to two-thirds of prior benchmarks. This development reduces the immediate price impact of Strait of Hormuz risks while preserving Iranian transit leverage. Data from Goldman Sachs and trader surveys confirm the recovery pattern without resolving underlying enforcement gaps.
Goldman Sachs data released late Thursday documented the rebound in total Gulf-area shipments after initial disruptions tied to Middle East conflict. Crude flows remain 7-8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict baselines, yet the increase occurred through expanded use of unidentified tankers and transfers that bypass standard tracking. This adaptation directly counters attempts to limit Iranian leverage over the chokepoint.
Goldman Sachs: Persian Gulf exports exceed 18 million barrels per day by March 2026 if dark fleet utilization holds above current quarterly averages.
Sources (2)
- [1]Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Research Note(https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/commodities-research)
- [2]Bloomberg Trader Survey on Hormuz Flows(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/hormuz-oil-transits-survey)