The University of Bath and Sheffield micro-simulation, published in Social Science & Medicine, models a wholesale price cap plus offsetting tax rises on tobacco. This observational dynamic model tracks 250,000 synthetic individuals aged 18-89 over 20 years and projects up to £4.9 billion revenue by 2029 alongside 10,073 fewer hospital admissions. Unlike RCTs, this is scenario-based modeling calibrated on prior alcohol minimum-unit-pricing work from the same Sheffield group; no randomization or prospective controls exist, limiting causal claims. The approach correctly highlights progressive effects on the lowest-income quintile yet underplays smuggling elasticities documented in real UK tax-hike episodes. Cross-referencing with Chaloupka et al. (Lancet 2022) on global tobacco-tax pass-through shows industry profits absorb only 30-40% of hikes before volume drops accelerate. A second synthesis with the 2023 Cochrane review of fiscal interventions (42 studies, n>1 million) confirms price caps reduce prevalence by 4-8% but flags enforcement gaps that this levy must address. The missed connection is upstream: tying levy revenue directly to NHS prevention budgets could close the loop between industry liability and clinical outcomes, a step beyond the paper's fiscal-health framing.