Gallup Data Shows Young Non-Homeowners' Five-Year Purchase Expectations Halved Since 2013
Gallup polling documents a sustained drop in near-term homebuying expectations among young non-owners. The trend reflects the interaction of elevated rates, constrained supply, and limited wealth accumulation rather than cyclical sentiment alone. Structural changes in ownership rates are likely to persist without policy intervention on housing finance or land-use rules.
Absent major shifts in monetary policy or federal housing finance reform, the share of young adults remaining renters is projected to rise further. If mortgage rates stay above 5.5 percent through 2027, Census Bureau household formation models imply the under-35 ownership rate could drop below 35 percent by 2028, altering consumption patterns and delaying family formation milestones tracked in National Center for Health Statistics data.
Census Bureau: Under-35 homeownership rate falls below 35 percent by end of 2028 if average 30-year mortgage rates remain above 5.5 percent.
Sources (3)
- [1]Gallup Poll on Homeownership Intentions(https://news.gallup.com/poll/656000/americans-homeownership-expectations-2025.aspx)
- [2]US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Ownership Q4 2024(https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/index.html)
- [3]Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances 2022(https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf)