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financeTuesday, October 20, 2026 at 03:32 PM
EU TTF Natural Gas Surpasses €90/MWh on Reduced Persian Gulf LNG Flows Through Hormuz

EU TTF Natural Gas Surpasses €90/MWh on Reduced Persian Gulf LNG Flows Through Hormuz

TTF prices have returned to 2022 crisis levels because visible Gulf LNG exports through Hormuz have fallen. Goldman’s documented scenarios map the price path under continued supply shortfalls versus base-case recovery. The data show the incentive structure for both exporters and importers without reliance on stated policy rationales.

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Absent a verifiable increase in Hormuz transits or a documented de-escalation of shipping incidents, forward curves will continue to embed the documented risk premium through the 2026-2027 winter.

⚡ Prediction

Goldman Sachs: TTF remains above €100/MWh through 31 December 2026 if weekly Hormuz LNG crossings stay below 25 percent of the February 2026 average.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Goldman Sachs Commodities Note(https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/energy-market-update-oct-2026.html)
  • [2]
    TTF Settlement Data(https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data)
  • [3]
    EIA Weekly LNG Exports(https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/)