Futures Price 1.8 Mb/d Gulf Supply Increase Despite Inflows 55 Percent Below Pre-Crisis Levels
Oil futures have advanced a supply glut that vessel and quota data do not yet support. The gap between cleared stranded cargoes and sustained new inflows creates downside risk to prices if inflows fail to accelerate. Low inventories in the United States and China limit the buffer against any reversal in physical flows.
The ceasefire announced on 12 October triggered an immediate 8 percent drop in Brent to $72.40, with Angolan grades offered at a $10 discount to dated Brent for the first time since 2014. Bloomberg tanker data through 18 October recorded 92 vessels exiting the Strait carrying previously stranded cargoes, yet only 41 vessels entered during the same period. Phillips 66 CEO cited 90-100 million barrels of floating inventory set to clear within 30 days.
EIA: US crude inventories rise above 3 million barrels in the 23 October weekly report if Hormuz net inflows stay below 1.1 million b/d.
Sources (3)
- [1]US Energy Information Administration Weekly Petroleum Status Report(https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/)
- [2]Bloomberg Tanker Tracking Data October 2024(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-17)
- [3]OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report October 2024(https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm)