ADHD Diagnoses Rise in Europe Due to Awareness and Criteria Shifts, Not Population Prevalence

{"Thapar, chair of the NHS England ADHD task force, presented evidence at the 39th ECNP congress that referral surges reflect expanded diagnostic criteria, greater public recognition, and inclusion of adult and female presentations previously overlooked. Medication use data from five countries confirm the trend: UK prevalence rose from 0.12% to 0.39% between 2010 and 2023, with sharper increases among women.","Observational prescription databases and national health records document these changes, yet repeated population surveys show no corresponding rise in true prevalence. This pattern mirrors earlier shifts in hypertension and lipid management thresholds, where evidence lowered intervention points without altering underlying biology.","Related studies in Lancet Psychiatry (2018) and a 2022 meta-analysis in JAMA Pediatrics indicate persistent underdiagnosis in girls and adults, supporting Thapar's view that current clinic rates remain below expected population levels. The presentation highlights risks of both over- and under-treatment along a symptom spectrum.","Next steps require longitudinal cohort studies tracking diagnostic thresholds against functional outcomes and randomized trials comparing stepped-care models to medication-first approaches to clarify when intervention improves mortality and suicide risk signals already linked to untreated ADHD."}