Israel's Yellow Line absorbs Qana Blocks 8 and 9 in violation of 2022 maritime line

The buffer zone announced by Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee extends 10 km into Lebanese territory and its adjacent exclusive economic zone. It incorporates the full extent of Block 8, where TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy signed an exploration permit in January 2025, plus adjacent Block 9. Israeli ground operations have since exceeded the line, with documented strikes north of the demarcation after the US-brokered ceasefire.

Lebanon's 2010 hydrocarbon law designated ten blocks; only Block 8 holds an active contract. 2020 drilling in Block 4 yielded non-commercial results and Block 9 remains undrilled. The 2022 agreement resolved an 860 km² surface dispute by fixing coordinates that placed the Qana structure on the Lebanese side; the new Yellow Line shifts effective control over that structure without renegotiating the maritime coordinates.

The move creates a de-facto veto on Lebanese licensing rounds in the northern Levantine basin while Israel maintains production at Karish and continues appraisal at Tanin. Regional precedent from the Gaza buffer zone shows sustained territorial retention beyond stated security needs, indicating the Lebanese line is likely to persist irrespective of Hezbollah disarmament timelines.

Exploration activity in Block 8 is now suspended pending clarification of access rights. Absent a new maritime enforcement mechanism, Lebanese authorities cannot issue drilling permits without risking direct confrontation, delaying any revenue timeline by at least three licensing cycles.