Goldman Sachs Analysis Links AI Exposure to Shifts in College Major Enrollments Amid Softening Entry-Level Job Market

A Goldman Sachs research note by economist Pierfrancesco Mei uses American Community Survey data on occupational outcomes for recent graduates (2022-2024) combined with AI displacement risk scores to rank college majors by exposure. Computer science, statistics, and quantitative methods rank among the highest-risk, while health professions like nursing and pharmacy, along with education fields, rank lowest. The analysis finds that enrollment declines in 2025-26, per National Student Clearinghouse data covering over 95% of institutions, have concentrated in high-AI-risk majors with weaker job growth—computer science enrollments dropped over 10% in some categories—while healthcare and engineering saw gains. This marks the first statistically significant correlation between AI exposure metrics and enrollment shifts since ChatGPT's 2022 release. Broader context from Federal Reserve data and reports shows elevated unemployment among recent CS graduates, supporting early student adaptation to AI-driven changes in white-collar entry-level roles.