NY Fed Data Clarifies Credit Card Delinquency Trends: Stock vs. Flow Measures Reveal Stable Consumer Stress

A widely circulated claim that credit card delinquencies have reached their worst levels since 2008 stems from New York Fed data but misinterprets the figures. The Q2 2026 Household Debt and Credit Report shows total household debt at $18.8 trillion, down slightly by $13 billion, with credit card balances rising modestly to $1.26 trillion. The headline 12.8% share of balances 90+ days past due (up from 7.6% in late 2022) is a 'stock' measure that includes stale, charged-off debts lingering on credit reports for longer periods than in prior decades—now around 80% reported a year later versus 40% historically. In contrast, the 'flow' measure of new delinquencies has remained stable at approximately 6.97% year-over-year, aligning with lender-reported data and indicating no acceleration in repayment stress. NY Fed economists explicitly note that flow rates provide a more accurate view of current household behavior. While aggregate figures mask heterogeneity—with stress concentrated among lower-income segments—the overall picture shows elevated but non-crisis levels, corroborated by analyses from PNC Economics and First Trust. Related savings rate data from the BEA further highlights uneven pressures, though broader debt transitions remain steady across most categories.