European Natural Gas Prices Surge to 2022 Highs Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions and Goldman Sachs Warnings

European benchmark natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub have climbed above €88-90 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in mid-to-late October 2026, marking the highest levels since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war. Multiple market trackers confirm the sharp rally, with prices more than doubling or tripling year-to-date amid depleted storage and constrained global LNG supply.[1][2][3]

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven, have highlighted significant upside risks to their base-case forecast of €70/MWh by year-end. In a note, they warned that prices could spike to €150/MWh if Persian Gulf LNG exports remain severely curtailed (at just 25% of normal) combined with a colder-than-average winter. Their base case assumes a recovery in Middle Eastern supply and moderation of risk premiums, with Brent crude at $90/barrel by end-2026. However, geopolitical escalation—particularly disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—could push Brent to $140 early next year.[4][5]

The price surge stems from a Middle East conflict involving Iran that has damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex—the world's largest—and throttled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, slashing exports. European storage levels are notably low entering winter, intensifying competition for cargoes with Asia. Broader commodity markets reflect scarcity pressures, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index posting strong gains.[6]

This episode underscores Europe's ongoing vulnerability to geopolitical chokepoints and LNG market dynamics, even years after the initial 2022 shock, with potential ripple effects on industrial output, heating costs, and inflation across the continent.