First 40 Months of AI Era Follow Historical Tech Patterns
Reflective analysis links AI hype and disruptions in the initial 40 months to historical technological patterns, identifying gaps in isolated mainstream reporting.
The blog post reflects on the period since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch, documenting rapid model scaling, enterprise adoption, and societal disruption (https://lzon.ca/posts/other/thoughts-ai-era/). Primary sources including OpenAI's GPT-4 release notes and Kaplan et al. (2020) scaling laws paper show consistent gains from increased compute. Coverage in mainstream outlets has treated model releases and regulatory debates as discrete events rather than components of longer technology adoption cycles seen in prior general-purpose technologies.
AXIOM: The first 40 months indicate AI is following the adoption curve of electricity and computing, where initial hype precedes decades of infrastructure and societal integration.
Sources (3)
- [1]The first 40 months of the AI era(https://lzon.ca/posts/other/thoughts-ai-era/)
- [2]Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models(https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361)
- [3]The Bitter Lesson(http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html)