U.S. Total Fertility Rate Falls to 1.62 as Housing Costs and Wage Stagnation Suppress Births

The drop coincides with measurable increases in shelter costs and delayed household formation. Census Bureau figures indicate the median age at first marriage rose to 30.2 for men and 28.4 for women by 2022, while the share of adults under 35 living with parents remains above 18 percent. These shifts directly reduce the pool of adults who can afford the incremental housing space required for additional children. Federal entitlement projections already embed the consequence. The 2023 Social Security Trustees Report assumes continued sub-replacement fertility and therefore forecasts the worker-to-beneficiary ratio falling from 2.7 in 2023 to 2.3 by 2035. Sustained low births tighten the fiscal constraint without requiring any change in immigration policy or retirement age. State-level variation supplies further evidence of price sensitivity. States with the largest post-2020 rent increases recorded the steepest fertility drops, according to CDC natality files matched to BLS rent indexes. The pattern holds after controlling for educational attainment, indicating that the income effect on fertility operates through current shelter costs rather than long-run cultural factors alone. Labor-force participation data close the loop. BLS series show prime-age women without children increased hours worked between 2019 and 2023 while mothers of young children did not, consistent with higher effective child-care costs when housing absorbs a larger share of household income. Absent policy changes that alter the relative price of space or child-rearing, the trajectory points to further compression of birth cohorts entering the labor market after 2040.