Nomura Analyst Flags Europe's Rightward Political Shift Amid Elections, Markets Signal Acceptance

Europe faces an 18-month period of key elections that could accelerate a populist rightward turn, according to analysis from Nomura International. Senior European economist Andrzej Szczepaniak highlighted mounting public discontent over migration, social cohesion, crime, and economic stagnation as 'seeds of political change,' with right-wing parties poised for gains in Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and beyond.

Recent polling in Germany underscores the trend. In Saxony-Anhalt, ahead of the September 6, 2026 state election, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads with 41-43% support, ahead of the CDU at 22-24%. This positions AfD for a potential outright majority or strong influence, marking a historic breakthrough for the party at the state level. Similar dynamics appear in other eastern German states, reflecting national polling where AfD has overtaken the governing CDU/CSU coalition.

Broader European patterns align with this assessment. Far-right parties have sustained momentum since the 2024 EU elections, with stabilization at high levels into 2026. In France, rightward consolidation continues ahead of 2027 presidential contests, while Spain's regional results show conservative gains. Analysts note that markets appear more receptive to fiscally prudent right-wing governance—modeled on Italy's Giorgia Meloni—than to left-leaning spending proposals.

France's fiscal pressures, with debt-to-GDP projected near 120%, add to fragmentation risks. Szczepaniak and others contrast this with perceived stability under pragmatic populist approaches focused on immigration and culture alongside economic restraint. The shift reflects voter backlash against prior policies on migration and deindustrialization pressures, including competition from Chinese EVs.