The Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, incorporates direct energy pass-through from ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East that the May 2026 Bloomberg report only sketches at headline level. Primary data from the Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report document a sustained 18 percent year-over-year rise in crude imports and distillate inventories drawdowns directly attributable to Black Sea shipping disruptions and Red Sea rerouting, effects absent from purely domestic demand narratives. FOMC minutes from March 2026 explicitly flag these war-driven components as distinct from shelter and services persistence, yet markets have repriced the Treasury curve assuming the distinction will hold; any broadening into core services would invalidate that assumption. One perspective, reflected in BEA underlying detail tables, treats the energy impulse as transitory once inventories normalize. An alternative reading, visible in the same tables' import price indices, shows second-round effects on transportation and manufacturing already appearing in March data. Neither view is endorsed here; both remain contingent on de-escalation timelines that primary diplomatic records do not yet confirm.