Broadcom's fiscal Q2 results, with AI semiconductor revenue at $10.8 billion narrowly topping estimates yet Q3 guidance at $16 billion falling short of $17.2 billion projections, expose timing risks in long-term contracts with hyperscalers including Google and Meta. Primary earnings materials indicate revenue recognition remains tied to multiyear backlogs rather than immediate quarterly flows, a distinction analysts tracking 10-Q disclosures have long flagged. This pattern echoes prior cycles where custom accelerator demand outpaced networking margins, as TPU-related growth compresses EBITDA toward 68 percent versus street expectations near 69 percent. Related analysis from Federal Reserve reports on private credit shows over $600 billion in SPV structures, including the Apollo-Blackstone arrangement backstopping Anthropic payments for Broadcom-designed chips, creating circular financing that amplifies sensitivity to any drawdown signal. Perspectives differ on whether slower ramp reflects genuine supply constraints or conservative forecasting amid export control regimes affecting advanced node access; official Commerce Department entity lists underscore how geopolitical restrictions on semiconductor technology can delay customer deployments without direct company disclosure. Full-year targets held at $100 billion in AI sales and 10GW by 2027, avoiding prior upward revisions, underscore caution against assuming uninterrupted exponential growth. Market reaction erasing $270 billion in recent gains illustrates direct transmission to equity valuations and retirement holdings, distinct from narrative-driven rallies preceding major IPO windows.