Eroding Cordon Sanitaire: Infratest Dimap Data Reveals Shifting Voter Tolerance for AfD Cooperation Amid Continental Realignment Pressures

The Infratest Dimap Deutschlandtrend survey for ARD, released in early 2025, documents a precise 12-point rise since September 2024 in Germans viewing CDU exclusion of AfD cooperation as incorrect, reaching parity at 47 percent. Eastern states show 58 percent opposition to the firewall versus 38 percent support, while western figures remain narrowly divided at 50-45. These regional variances align with AfD polling at 27 percent nationally, ahead of CDU/CSU at 23 percent, per the same instrument. Primary Bundestag records from 2021-2025 sessions confirm repeated cross-party resolutions maintaining the cordon, yet the poll indicates 57 percent of AfD voters cite alternative-party disappointment as motive, up from 2018 baselines where conviction drove 61 percent of preferences overall. Comparable patterns appear in French legislative records post-2024 snap elections and Italian regional tallies, where similar exclusionary norms faced erosion without formal policy reversal. Economic indicators from Destatis, showing 85 percent rating conditions as poor, intersect with migration data from BAMF to frame voter calculus, though the survey itself omits direct causation metrics. Perspectives from CDU-aligned statements emphasize institutional stability, while AfD parliamentary motions stress programmatic responsiveness; neither position receives endorsement here. The data leaves open whether eastern gains translate to federal arithmetic or remain contained by coalition thresholds.