Sinopec Chairman: China's Oil Demand 'Very Likely' Peaked in 2025, Ahead of Prior Forecasts
Bloomberg-reported comments from Sinopec's chairman confirm China's oil demand likely peaked in 2025 due to EVs and clean energy, earlier than the firm's 2027 forecast, with corroboration from prior Reuters and industry analyses.
China's oil demand likely crested last year, according to Sinopec Chairman Hou Qijun, marking an earlier peak than the company's own prior projections and raising implications for global crude markets and emissions goals.
Speaking at an earnings briefing in Hong Kong on August 24, 2026, Hou attributed the shift to clean energy development, electrification, and low-carbon targets. He noted that road fuel demand had already plummeted in the first half of the year due to higher prices and EV adoption, with the company previously expecting a peak in 2027.
"Next year, even if the US-Iran conflict eases up, things might recover, but it won’t hit last year’s level," Hou said. "So it’s very likely demand peaked last year."[1]
This assessment aligns with broader trends. Sinopec's earnings report highlighted declining gasoline and diesel demand, while earlier 2024-2025 outlooks from the company and others like CNPC had pointed to a possible peak around 2025-2027 at roughly 15.4-16 million barrels per day.
As the world's largest oil importer, an accelerated decline in Chinese consumption could ease pressure on global supplies but challenge upstream producers. The announcement builds on December 2024 Reuters reporting of Sinopec's forecast for a 2027 peak and ongoing data showing weak 2024-2025 demand growth.
Sinopec is adapting by diversifying crude sources and maintaining strategic storage amid regional conflicts.
[Energy Market Analyst]: An earlier Chinese demand peak accelerates global oil market rebalancing, likely capping price upside and boosting renewables investment over the next decade.
Sources (4)
- [1]China’s Oil Demand ‘Very Likely’ Peaked Last Year, Sinopec Says(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-24/china-s-oil-demand-very-likely-peaked-last-year-sinopec-says)
- [2]China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027, says top refiner Sinopec(https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sinopec-forecasts-chinas-petroleum-consumption-peak-by-2027-2024-12-19/)
- [3]China's Oil Demand, Imports and Supply Security(https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/chinas-oil-demand-imports-and-supply-security/)
- [4]Sinopec Says China Oil Demand 'Very Likely' Peaked in 2025(https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/sinopec_says_china_oil_demand_very_likely_peaked_in_2025-24-aug-2026-184444-article/)