Android Earthquake Alerts Reached 16 Million Users 5.31 Seconds After 2025 Marmara Quake Onset with 90% True Positives
The 2025 Marmara quake study shows Android alerts achieved rapid detection and high user compliance. Crowd-sourced sensing provided advantages over station networks even for offshore events. Timely warnings boosted protective actions and long-term trust, pointing to scalable resilience tools.
The AEA system leveraged the dense Android phone network for rapid detection of an offshore epicenter, outperforming traditional seismic stations in speed. Feedback surveys showed recipients performed drop-cover-hold-on actions at high rates, with timely alerts directly increasing perceived usefulness and future trust in the system. This crowd-sourced approach demonstrated how phone density can compensate for sparse instrumentation in tectonically active regions like the Marmara Sea. Analysis of precision at 99% indicates the system minimized unnecessary alerts while scaling to mass populations. Future expansions could integrate behavioral nudges to further raise compliance in near-source zones where warning windows shrink below 20 seconds.
Mousavi: In the next Mw>6.0 Marmara event within 18 months, AEA will issue alerts to over 22 million users with false positive rate below 5% if phone density grows 15%.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.08975)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/113/4/1456/623892)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq3106)